KARACHI: As a deep depression moves steadily towards Oman, lying about 250 km south/southeast of Karachi on Thursday, Pakistan’s coastal areas are bracing for the possibility of a rare cyclonic storm over the northeast Arabian Sea, near Sindh’s coast.
The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has issued warnings of torrential rains in the southern districts, including Karachi and along the Makran coast, as the depression, which originated over the Rann of Kutch in India, slowly progresses west-southwestward. Despite this, meteorologists assure that the storm does not pose a direct threat to Pakistan’s coastline.
Widespread Impact of Heavy Rains
Nationwide, continuous rainfall has led to devastating consequences, claiming nine more lives, triggering flash floods, and isolating several regions by cutting off road access. The incessant downpour has also led to the filling of major water reservoirs to capacity.
In Punjab, seven individuals lost their lives and 18 others sustained injuries due to the severe rainfall that has caused significant infrastructure damage and urban flooding in low-lying areas.
In Gilgit-Baltistan, two people, including a tourist, died, and three others were injured as flash floods and landslides blocked major roads, including the Karakoram Highway and Baltistan Road. In a rare occurrence, Babusar Top also received light snowfall.
Cyclone Threat and Precautions
The PMD has highlighted that the formation of a cyclone during the monsoon season is an unusual phenomenon. Dr. Sardar Sarfaraz, Chief Meteorologist, explained that such depressions rarely turn into cyclones during this period due to high vertical wind shear. However, if this storm does materialize, it would be the first cyclone in the Arabian Sea in August since 1976, and it would be named ‘Asna’ as per the naming conventions of a 13-country panel, including Pakistan.
Although the storm itself may not directly impact Pakistan’s coast, its effects are expected to bring heavy rains, which could lead to urban flooding, particularly in Karachi. In anticipation of the storm, the Karachi commissioner’s office has announced a school holiday for Friday, August 30.
Flooding in Gilgit-Baltistan
In Gilgit-Baltistan, the region has experienced significant disruption due to flash floods and landslides, particularly in Diamer, where key roads have been blocked. In Chilas, a local resident lost his life in a flash flood in Nayat Valley, while a tourist was killed and three others injured when a vehicle was hit by falling rocks on Baltistan Road.
The flash floods have also caused infrastructure damage in Skardu, triggering panic among patients in the Combined Military Hospital, although the hospital itself remained unscathed. The Gilgit-Baltistan administration has issued warnings of further possible landslides and flash floods until August 31, given the ongoing rain forecast.
Reservoirs Near Full Capacity
In Balochistan, the Hub Dam is nearing full capacity, with officials expecting to open the spillways as heavy monsoon rains continue to raise water levels in the Hub River. The dam’s water level has reached 337 feet, just two feet short of its full capacity of 339 feet.
Elsewhere in the country, major reservoirs like Tarbela, Mangla, and Chashma have also reached near-maximum levels. The Tarbela Reservoir has maintained its maximum conservation level of 1,550 feet since August 19, 2024, while Mangla Reservoir is expected to see further improvement due to reduced irrigation demand and favorable weather forecasts.
The current inflow trends in the Jhelum River and releases from the reservoirs suggest that Mangla Dam could reach a level of 1,222 feet by September 10, potentially improving further depending on the hydrological response of the Chenab River and additional rainfall in the region.
Khalid Hasnain and Imran Gabol in Lahore, along with Abdul Wahid Shahwani in Khuzdar, contributed to this report.
