Pakistan’s Inflation Expected to Climb Sharply in September 2025
Islamabad – September 17, 2025
Pakistan’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2025 is projected to rise between 6.5% and 7%, compared to 3.0% in August 2025 and 6.93% in September 2024, according to Topline Securities. On a month-on-month (MoM) basis, inflation is expected to increase by 3.1%, marking the highest monthly rise in over two years.
Key Drivers of Inflation
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Food Prices Surge: Flood-related supply disruptions have led to a sharp 8.75% MoM rise in the food index, the steepest jump ever recorded. Major increases include:
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Tomatoes: +122%
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Wheat: +49%
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Flour: +39%
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Onions: +35%
Other staples such as potatoes, rice, chicken, eggs, and sugar also saw moderate hikes.
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Housing & Utilities: This segment is expected to ease slightly, down 0.24% MoM, due to a 2.19% drop in electricity tariffs. However, this was partly offset by a 2.75% rise in LPG prices.
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Transport Costs: Overall transport inflation fell 1.25% MoM, driven by a 2.7% decline in motor fuel prices. Petrol remained stable, while high-speed diesel dropped by 5.3%.
Outlook
With YoY inflation at its highest in 11 months, analysts warn of continued risks from global commodity price volatility, which could influence Pakistan’s inflation path in the coming months. Real interest rates are also expected to remain elevated, at 400-450 basis points, compared to the historical average of 200-300 bps.
