Heatwave Death Toll in Europe Could Be Far Higher Than Official Numbers Suggest
PARIS — Scientists warn that human-caused climate change may have contributed to around 16,500 deaths in European cities during this summer’s record-breaking heatwaves, according to a rapid attribution study released Wednesday.
The study, conducted by researchers at Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, used climate modelling to estimate the toll before official mortality data becomes available.
How the Estimates Were Calculated
Researchers analyzed temperature data from 854 European cities between June and August, finding that global warming had made temperatures an average of 2.2°C hotter. By comparing expected mortality in a world without climate change to the observed conditions, the team estimated 24,400 excess deaths, of which 16,500 (nearly 70%) were linked to human-driven global warming.
The study highlights that heatwave-related deaths are often underreported, as official records typically cite heart, respiratory, or other health problems rather than the heat itself—particularly affecting elderly populations.
Cities Most Affected
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Rome: 835 estimated deaths
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Athens: 630 estimated deaths
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Paris: 409 estimated deaths
More than 85% of the deaths occurred among people aged 65 or older. Researchers cautioned that these figures may still underestimate the true toll, especially in regions not included in the study, such as parts of the Balkans.
Climate Change and Heatwaves: A Growing Threat
“An increase in heatwave temperatures of just 2–4°C can be the difference between life and death for thousands of people,” said study co-author Garyfallos Konstantinoudis.
Atmospheric science expert Akshay Deoras from the University of Reading added, “The methods used in these studies are scientifically robust yet conservative. The actual death toll could be even higher.”
This summer marked Europe’s fourth-hottest on record, underscoring the urgent need for climate adaptation measures, especially to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events.
