Pakistan Reconsiders $13bn TAPI Gas Pipeline Project Amid LNG Surplus
ISLAMABAD (Sept 5, 2025): Pakistan may delay or even withdraw from the $13 billion Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline project, as senior officials weigh the country’s future energy needs and financial sustainability.
The move follows recommendations from international energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie, which advised Pakistan to postpone any gas intake from Turkmenistan until at least 2031, citing a domestic oversupply of imported LNG due to falling gas consumption.
Pakistan Faces Tough Choices on TAPI
According to sources in the Ministry of Energy, the advisory has triggered urgent discussions within the Petroleum Division. Officials are now considering formally notifying Turkmenistan of either deferring commitments or withdrawing from the mega project.
The challenge is compounded by Pakistan’s existing long-term LNG contracts, which already pose a burden on the country’s infrastructure and finances.
India’s Role Critical to Viability
A major concern is India’s uncertain position in the TAPI project. If New Delhi formally withdraws, the pipeline would effectively become TAP (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan) — a model that Pakistani officials believe is not financially viable.
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Without India, Pakistan would lose $700–800 million annually in transit fee revenue.
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Instead, Islamabad would need to pay $500 million per year to Afghanistan in gas transit fees.
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Adding this to the base gas price of $7.5 per MMBTU would push overall costs higher than even imported RLNG, making the project unsustainable.
What’s Next?
Analysts say Pakistan must carefully weigh its options, as exiting or deferring the TAPI project could have long-term geopolitical and economic implications. However, given the current LNG surplus and financial constraints, officials believe that delaying commitments may be the most pragmatic path forward.
