Pakistan May Need Up to 70,720MW Additional Power Capacity by 2035: Report
Pakistan is projected to require between 62,660 megawatts and 70,720 megawatts of additional electricity generation capacity by 2035 to support expected economic growth, according to the revised Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2025–35.
The plan has been developed by the Independent System and Market Operator in coordination with the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority and other stakeholders. It outlines a 10-year roadmap for expanding Pakistan’s power generation and transmission systems.
Demand Forecast Based on Economic Growth
The projections are based on three economic growth scenarios linked to GDP expansion ranging from 3.5% to 6.4%. Depending on the scenario, the required capacity additions are estimated as follows:
- Low growth scenario: 62,657MW
- Medium growth scenario: 66,459MW
- High growth scenario: 70,720MW
The report suggests that future demand will be driven by economic recovery and industrial expansion.
Current Power Consumption Trends
Despite long-term growth expectations, electricity consumption in Pakistan has recently shown a declining trend. The system load factor has dropped from 70–73% to around 58–60%, indicating underutilization of existing capacity.
Officials attribute this decline to economic pressures and the increasing use of rooftop solar systems and net metering across the country.
Shift Toward Renewable Energy
The IGCEP highlights a gradual transition in the country’s energy mix by 2035:
- Hydropower: 34% of total capacity
- Solar and wind: 27% combined
- Nuclear: 4,730MW
- RLNG: 13%
- Imported coal: 7%
- Furnace oil: planned phase-out
The plan also includes significant additions of renewable energy projects, including hydropower, solar, and wind installations.
Investment Requirements and Infrastructure Expansion
Total investment in generation capacity is estimated between $46 billion and $54 billion. An additional $4.6 billion to $6 billion will be required for transmission system upgrades.
The plan also anticipates increasing electricity supply to K-Electric from 2,050MW to 3,456MW by 2035.
Outlook and Challenges
While the strategy aims to strengthen energy security and improve efficiency, experts note that actual demand growth will play a critical role in determining outcomes.
They also warn that rapid expansion of decentralized solar generation and slower-than-expected demand growth could lead to excess capacity and financial pressure on the power sector if projections do not align with real consumption trends.
