UN Warns El Niño Likely to Return in Mid-2026, Raising Climate Concerns
AFP | Published April 24, 2026
The United Nations has warned that the El Niño weather pattern is likely to return by mid-2026, potentially influencing global temperatures and weather systems across many regions.
According to the UN’s World Meteorological Organization (WMO), early indicators suggest that El Niño conditions could develop between May and July 2026, with a possibility of further strengthening later in the year.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that occurs when sea surface temperatures rise in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. This warming affects wind patterns, atmospheric pressure, and rainfall distribution around the world.
It is part of a cycle that alternates between:
- El Niño (warming phase)
- La Niña (cooling phase)
- Neutral conditions
Potential Impact on Global Weather
The WMO said that the expected return of El Niño could contribute to above-average global temperatures, especially over land areas.
Key concerns include:
- Increased likelihood of heatwaves
- Changes in rainfall patterns
- Risk of flooding and droughts in different regions
- Possible disruption to agriculture and water supplies
The agency noted that ocean surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are already rising, signaling a likely shift toward El Niño conditions.
Experts Expect a Strong Event
WMO climate experts said there is high confidence that El Niño conditions will develop, with models suggesting it could become a strong event.
However, they added that forecasts typically become more accurate after April as more data becomes available.
The agency also highlighted that El Niño events usually occur every two to seven years and last for about nine to twelve months.
Climate Change and El Niño
The WMO clarified that climate change does not increase the frequency of El Niño events, but it can worsen their impact.
A warmer ocean and atmosphere can:
- Increase moisture levels in the air
- Intensify storms and rainfall
- Strengthen heatwaves and extreme weather events
Looking Ahead
Meteorologists say continued monitoring will be important in the coming months as the situation develops.
If El Niño strengthens as predicted, its effects could be felt across agriculture, water resources, and global weather systems throughout 2026 and beyond.
