UN Warns of Potentially Record-Breaking El Niño, Urges Urgent Global Action
The United Nations has called for immediate international action to prepare for a potentially unprecedented El Niño event, warning that extreme heat, droughts and floods could worsen in the coming months and cause serious humanitarian challenges into 2027 and beyond.
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) said on Wednesday that the climate phenomenon could reach exceptional strength, potentially exceeding the limits of monitoring records maintained over the past four decades.
Celeste Saulo, head of the WMO, warned that extreme weather events were already affecting parts of the world and could become more widespread as El Niño intensifies.
Speaking at a press conference in Geneva alongside UN humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher, Saulo stressed the importance of coordinated preventive measures to protect vulnerable communities before conditions deteriorate further.
Although El Niño cannot be prevented, she said, governments and humanitarian organisations can take steps to reduce its impact on people at risk.
Fletcher described the phenomenon as a major threat to regions including Latin America, eastern and southern Africa, Asia and the Pacific. He warned that its consequences could be compounded by existing conflicts, displacement, rising food and fuel prices, higher fertiliser costs and reductions in international aid.
According to Fletcher, around 50 million people could face increased hunger as the crisis develops, potentially placing additional pressure on humanitarian agencies already struggling to meet global needs.
He identified the next two weeks as a critical period for preparation and urged governments, development banks and international financial institutions to provide funding before disasters intensify.
The UN humanitarian chief said preparations should be tailored to regional risks. Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya need supplies ahead of expected heavy rains, while southern African countries require seeds and livestock support. Central American communities need assistance to protect livelihoods, and countries across Asia and the Pacific must prepare for possible droughts, flooding and cyclones.
Fletcher also warned that the effects would extend beyond the countries most directly exposed, potentially disrupting the global economy and contributing to further displacement, migration and conflict.
He said he had released $50 million to support 11 countries facing heightened risks, including Chad, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Somalia and South Sudan.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with warmer-than-average surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It influences atmospheric circulation and can alter rainfall, wind patterns and temperatures across many parts of the world.
The phenomenon generally occurs every two to seven years and typically lasts between nine and 12 months. It alternates with La Niña, which is associated with cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the same region.
The WMO’s latest global seasonal climate update, released on Wednesday, indicated that sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific could rise to 3.8 degrees Celsius above average during the November-to-January period. If realised, this would exceed the previous three-month record of 2.6 degrees Celsius recorded during the 2015–2016 El Niño event.
Saulo said such elevated ocean temperatures could have far-reaching effects on weather conditions worldwide.
El Niño typically reaches its peak between November and February, while its strongest effects on global temperatures may emerge later. The phenomenon can also intensify the effects of human-driven climate change, increasing the risk of extreme heat in many regions.
The previous El Niño contributed to exceptionally high global temperatures, with 2023 becoming the second-hottest year on record at the time and 2024 setting a new global temperature record.
The developing event is already affecting some communities, particularly in parts of Central America, where drought has damaged crops and contributed to animal deaths.
The UN has urged countries to act early, emphasising that advance planning, financial support and coordinated humanitarian assistance could help reduce the risks to millions of people as the climate event develops.
