Dengue Cases in Pakistan Increased by More Than 3,000% Over 11 Years: Study
Pakistan has experienced a dramatic rise in dengue cases over the past decade, with estimated infections increasing by more than 3,000 percent between 2012 and 2022, according to a new study led by Aga Khan University (AKU).
The research, published in the scientific journal PLOS ONE, provides detailed estimates of dengue transmission across Pakistan and suggests that the actual disease burden may be significantly higher than the numbers recorded through official surveillance systems.
Study Provides Broader Picture of Dengue Burden
Researchers from Aga Khan University worked with national and international partners to assess dengue incidence in Pakistan from 2012 to 2022.
The study used laboratory-confirmed data from three nationwide diagnostic laboratory networks along with statistical modelling techniques. Researchers also considered factors such as healthcare-seeking patterns, diagnostic testing practices and laboratory use to develop more representative estimates.
According to the findings, estimated dengue cases increased from around 100,000 in 2012 to approximately 3.28 million in 2022.
Prof Erum Khan, Chair of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine at AKU, said the study’s distinctive approach was based on routinely collected clinical laboratory data from nationwide diagnostic networks.
Sindh Recorded the Highest Dengue Burden
The research found major differences in dengue incidence between provinces.
Sindh recorded the highest estimated dengue burden in 2022, with an incidence of 45.63 cases per 1,000 people. The figure corresponded to an estimated 2.63 million cases in the province.
Adults between the ages of 15 and 49 were particularly affected, while dengue incidence increased across all age groups.
Balochistan reported the lowest estimated incidence during the same year, at 0.44 case per 100,000 people, corresponding to approximately 6,785 cases.
At the district level, Karachi East recorded the highest estimated incidence, identifying it as an important area for targeted dengue prevention and control measures.
Dengue May No Longer Be Only a Seasonal Disease
Dr Zarmeen Nasim, the study’s lead author and an assistant professor and researcher at the AKU Health Data Science Centre, said dengue should no longer be viewed solely as a seasonal health concern.
Although infections continue to rise during the months following the monsoon season, the study’s estimates indicate that transmission may be continuing throughout the year.
Researchers also observed increasingly larger outbreaks over time, highlighting the need for sustained disease prevention efforts rather than relying only on seasonal responses.
Researchers Call for Stronger Prevention Measures
The study highlights the importance of improving dengue surveillance and identifying districts where transmission risks are particularly high.
Researchers recommended a combination of measures, including stronger mosquito-control programmes, improved environmental management and greater public awareness.
The study also points to several additional approaches that could contribute to dengue prevention, including vaccines and Wolbachia-based mosquito control, a method that uses naturally occurring bacteria to reduce mosquitoes’ ability to transmit certain viruses.
Training healthcare professionals in the effective management of dengue patients was also identified as an important part of reducing the impact of the disease.
Overall, the findings suggest that Pakistan faces a growing dengue challenge and that long-term, coordinated prevention strategies will be important to control future outbreaks.
