NEPRA Approves $58 Billion Power Expansion Plan Through 2035 Despite Major Concerns
The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) has approved an 11-year national power generation and transmission plan that envisages investments of around $58 billion through 2035, despite significant concerns raised by all three members of the regulatory authority.
The Integrated System Plan 2025 was approved through a 45-page decision, with NEPRA directing that its observations and recommendations be addressed during implementation. The regulator’s chairman and members also recorded more than 12 pages of separate and dissenting observations regarding various aspects of the plan.
Concerns Over Major Power Projects
NEPRA members questioned the inclusion of some projects and the omission of others from the long-term plan. They also expressed reservations about the process followed in preparing the strategy.
One major concern relates to the plan’s consideration outside the Council of Common Interests (CCI), the constitutional forum responsible for dealing with important matters involving national energy policy and planning.
Generation Capacity to Increase Significantly
The approved plan uses a low-growth, business-as-usual scenario as its reference case. It assumes average annual GDP growth of 3.52% during the planning period.
Under the plan, Pakistan is expected to add approximately 26,045 MW of generation capacity by 2035.
This includes:
- 17,485 MW of already committed generation projects
- 8,560 MW of optimized additional capacity
- 8,120 MW linked to net metering
- Retirement of approximately 2,577 MW of existing generation capacity
After these changes, the country’s total installed generation capacity is projected to reach around 62,657 MW.
The estimated investment required for additional generation capacity has been placed at approximately $47.08 billion.
$10.65 Billion Transmission Investment
The transmission side of the plan is expected to require another $10.65 billion in investment over the next 11 years.
Of this amount, around $4.6 billion is allocated to ongoing or already committed projects, while approximately $6.05 billion is expected to be spent on new transmission expansion initiatives.
The proposed projects include power evacuation systems, strengthening of existing transmission networks, new extra-high-voltage substations, transformer upgrades and voltage-control facilities.
The plan also includes a 40 MW on-site power plant for the Gwadar and Makran region, particularly in view of disruptions affecting electricity imports from Iran.
NEPRA Rejects $900 Million Battery Storage Proposal
NEPRA has also declined to approve a proposed $900 million investment in battery energy storage systems at this stage.
The regulator said a detailed technical and economic assessment should first determine whether such storage is required, how much capacity would be appropriate, how it would be operated and whether the investment would be cost-effective.
Tariff Impact Raises Concerns
The authority also highlighted conflicting positions presented by the Independent System and Market Operator (ISMO) and the Power Planning and Monitoring Company (PPMC) regarding the potential impact of the plan on electricity consumers.
NEPRA directed that the expected effect on consumer-end electricity tariffs should be properly calculated and incorporated into the main planning document.
According to PPMC projections, the consumer-end base electricity tariff could increase to approximately Rs. 37.28 per unit by 2035, compared with around Rs. 34 per unit during 2024-25.
NEPRA Questions Data Reliability
The regulator also expressed concern over ISMO’s position that it could not take responsibility for the accuracy, authenticity and completeness of the data and projections used to develop the power plan.
NEPRA said such concerns need to be addressed before the plan can be implemented on a full scale.
The approval therefore provides Pakistan with a long-term roadmap for expanding generation and transmission infrastructure, while the regulator’s observations highlight the need for stronger planning, reliable data and a clearer assessment of the financial impact on electricity consumers.
