PMD Forecasts Warmer Weather and Lower Rainfall Across Pakistan Through September

The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has projected below-average rainfall and higher-than-normal temperatures across much of the country between July and September 2026.

According to the department’s latest seasonal outlook, changing ocean temperature patterns in the Pacific Ocean are contributing to the possible development of El Niño conditions, which are often linked to reduced rainfall in the region.

The forecast indicates that most areas of Punjab, Sindh, southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and large parts of Balochistan may experience normal to below-normal rainfall during the monsoon season. In contrast, Gilgit-Baltistan, Kashmir and upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are expected to receive near-normal or slightly above-normal rainfall.

PMD also expects temperatures to remain above seasonal averages in many parts of the country. The largest increases are likely to be recorded in northeastern Punjab and eastern Gilgit-Baltistan.

Weather experts noted that warmer conditions could increase water demand in agriculture and place additional pressure on water resources during the growing season.

The department further stated that heavy rainfall events may still occur in some regions, creating localized risks such as flash flooding, urban flooding and landslides, particularly in northern and mountainous areas.

Higher temperatures could also accelerate snow and glacier melt, leading to increased river flows in some regions during the coming months.

Agricultural experts are closely monitoring weather conditions, as rainfall patterns play an important role in the cultivation of key Kharif crops, including rice, cotton, sugarcane and maize.

The PMD has advised relevant authorities and stakeholders to remain informed about weather updates and take necessary measures to manage potential seasonal challenges.