El Niño Expected to Raise Global Temperatures in 2026
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has indicated that the El Niño climate pattern is likely to return by mid-2026, with conditions expected to develop between May and July.
According to the UN weather agency, there is strong confidence that El Niño will form after a period of neutral climate conditions earlier this year. Early indicators also suggest that the upcoming event could be relatively strong.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that causes warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. This warming can influence global weather patterns, often leading to changes in rainfall, wind systems, and atmospheric pressure.
The cycle alternates with its opposite phase, La Niña, with neutral conditions occurring in between. Previous El Niño events have been linked to rising global temperatures. For instance, recent years saw record-breaking heat levels, with 2023 among the hottest years and 2024 setting new global temperature records.
WMO climate prediction chief Wilfran Moufouma Okia noted that forecast accuracy is expected to improve after April as more data becomes available.
The agency also reported that sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are rising steadily, reinforcing expectations of El Niño’s return in the coming months.
Global Impact Outlook
Forecasts suggest that many regions around the world could experience above-average land temperatures over the next three months. While the WMO states that climate change does not directly increase the frequency of El Niño events, it can intensify their effects.
This means a higher likelihood of extreme weather conditions, including heatwaves, heavy rainfall, and shifting climate patterns across different regions.
